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Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable-resolution regional climate model: Tasmania as a test case

Citation

Corney, S and Grose, M and Bennett, JC and White, C and Katzfey, J and McGregor, J and Holz, G and Bindoff, NL, Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable-resolution regional climate model: Tasmania as a test case, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, (21) pp. 11936-11950. ISSN 2169-897X (2013) [Refereed Article]


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Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

DOI: doi:10.1002/2013JD020087

Abstract

In this study we develop methods for dynamically downscaling output from six general circulation models (GCMs) for two emissions scenarios using a variable-resolution atmospheric climate model. The use of multiple GCMs and emissions scenarios gives an estimate of model range in projected changes to the mean climate across the region. By modeling the atmosphere at a very fine scale, the simulations capture processes that are important to regional weather and climate at length scales that are subgrid scale for the host GCM. We find that with a multistaged process of increased resolution and the application of bias adjustment methods, the ability of the simulation to reproduce observed conditions improves, with greater than 95% of the spatial variance explained for temperature and about 90% for rainfall. Furthermore, downscaling leads to a significant improvement for the temporal distribution of variables commonly used in applied analyses, reproducing seasonal variability in line with observations. This seasonal signal is not evident in the GCMs. This multistaged approach allows progressive improvement in the skill of the simulations in order to resolve key processes over the region with quantifiable improvements in the correlations with observations. Key Points Dynamical downscaling adds value to global climate models Dynamical downscaling increases the skill of GCMs Model output can be used as input to impacts models ©2013 The Authors. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Regional climate model, Downscaling, Variable-resolution regional climate model, high resolution climate projections, Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Atmospheric Sciences
Research Field:Climate Change Processes
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate Change Models
Author:Corney, S (Dr Stuart Corney)
Author:Grose, M (Dr Michael Grose)
Author:Bennett, JC (Mr James Bennett)
Author:White, C (Dr Chris White)
Author:Holz, G (Dr Greg Holz)
Author:Bindoff, NL (Professor Nathan Bindoff)
ID Code:88757
Year Published:2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:14
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2014-02-13
Last Modified:2014-07-23
Downloads:211 View Download Statistics

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