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Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics
Citation
Metcalf, SJ and van Putten, EI and Frusher, SD and Tull, M and Marshall, N, Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics, Sustainability Science, 9, (3) pp. 247-261. ISSN 1862-4065 (2014) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2013 Springer Japan
DOI: doi:10.1007/s11625-013-0239-z
Abstract
Abstract Identifying effective adaptation strategies for
coastal communities dependent on marine resources and
impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the
dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more
difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic
trends are considered. Information about social and
economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A
combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide
the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future
ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide
information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate
how stakeholder input, qualitative models and
Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative
predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the
assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a
case study community. Issues are identified, including the
need to increase the capacity of the community to cope
with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter
positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued
decline in population, local employment and retail spending.
For instance, the diversification of employment
opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different
ages would be beneficial in preventing further population
decline. Some impacts of climate change can be
combated through recreational bag or size limits and
monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently
unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive
removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining
BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective
communication of information between stakeholders and
researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques
provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative
approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic
impacts and the identification of potential adaptation
strategies.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | climate change, qualitative modelling, Bayesian belief network, fisheries, socio-economic, stakeholder input |
Research Division: | Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences |
Research Group: | Fisheries sciences |
Research Field: | Fisheries sciences not elsewhere classified |
Objective Division: | Animal Production and Animal Primary Products |
Objective Group: | Fisheries - wild caught |
Objective Field: | Fisheries - wild caught not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Frusher, SD (Professor Stewart Frusher) |
ID Code: | 88621 |
Year Published: | 2014 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 21 |
Deposited By: | Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration |
Deposited On: | 2014-02-11 |
Last Modified: | 2017-11-04 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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