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On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia

Citation

White, CJ and McInnes, KL and Cechet, RP and Corney, SP and Grose, MR and Holz, GK and Katzfey, JJ and Bindoff, NL, On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia, Climate Dynamics, 41, (11-12) pp. 3145-3165. ISSN 0930-7575 (2013) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

DOI: doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1718-8

Abstract

The ability of an ensemble of six GCMs, downscaled to a 0.1° lat/lon grid using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model over Tasmania, Australia, to simulate observed extreme temperature and precipitation climatologies and statewide trends is assessed for 1961-2009 using a suite of extreme indices. The downscaled simulations have high skill in reproducing extreme temperatures, with the majority of models reproducing the statewide averaged sign and magnitude of recent observed trends of increasing warm days and warm nights and decreasing frost days. The warm spell duration index is however underestimated, while variance is generally overrepresented in the extreme temperature range across most regions. The simulations show a lower level of skill in modelling the amplitude of the extreme precipitation indices such as very wet days, but simulate the observed spatial patterns and variability. In general, simulations of dry extreme precipitation indices are underestimated in dryer areas and wet extremes indices are underestimated in wetter areas. Using two SRES emissions scenarios, the simulations indicate a significant increase in warm nights compared to a slightly more moderate increase in warm days, and an increase in maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation intensities interspersed with longer consecutive dry spells across Tasmania during the twenty-first century. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Extremes, Climate change, Regional climate models, Observations, Projections, Australian climate
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Atmospheric Sciences
Research Field:Climate Change Processes
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate Change Models
Author:White, CJ (Dr Chris White)
Author:Corney, SP (Dr Stuart Corney)
Author:Grose, MR (Dr Michael Grose)
Author:Holz, GK (Dr Greg Holz)
Author:Bindoff, NL (Professor Nathan Bindoff)
ID Code:86945
Year Published:2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:13
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2013-11-02
Last Modified:2015-02-05
Downloads:0

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