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Flood frequency censoring errors associated with daily-read flood observations
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 19:31 authored by Micevski, T, Kuczera, G, Franks, SW[1] The effects of daily-read discharges, discharges derived from a single daily observation (say at 9 AM), are examined in the context of flood frequency analysis. These discharges underestimate the true peak discharge because the actual peak is unlikely to occur at the single observation time. The resultant error in discharge estimates can be quite large, up to a factor of 10. Several maximum likelihood methods are proposed to deal with these daily-read, or censored, discharges. Three methods are evaluated: censored as gauged (CAG), which treats daily-read discharges as the true peak, binomial censoring (BC), which uses binomial censoring, and random dependent censoring (RDC), which incorporates the dependence between the the daily-read and true peak discharges. The performance of the methods is evaluated using a Monte Carlo study. The RDC method is found preferable to the CAG method because it provides better performance (in terms of root mean squared error and bias) and is theoretically sound. The BC method performs very poorly and is not recommended.
History
Publication title
Water Resources ResearchVolume
41Issue
7Article number
W07002Number
W07002Pagination
1-8ISSN
0043-1397Department/School
School of EngineeringPublisher
Amer Geophysical UnionPlace of publication
2000 Florida Ave Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20009Rights statement
Copyright 2005 American Geophysical UnionRepository Status
- Restricted