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Flood frequency censoring errors associated with daily-read flood observations

Citation

Micevski, T and Kuczera, G and Franks, SW, Flood frequency censoring errors associated with daily-read flood observations, Water Resources Research, 41, (7) Article W07002. ISSN 0043-1397 (2005) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright Statement

Copyright 2005 American Geophysical Union

DOI: doi:10.1029/2004WR003881

Abstract

[1] The effects of daily-read discharges, discharges derived from a single daily observation (say at 9 AM), are examined in the context of flood frequency analysis. These discharges underestimate the true peak discharge because the actual peak is unlikely to occur at the single observation time. The resultant error in discharge estimates can be quite large, up to a factor of 10. Several maximum likelihood methods are proposed to deal with these daily-read, or censored, discharges. Three methods are evaluated: censored as gauged (CAG), which treats daily-read discharges as the true peak, binomial censoring (BC), which uses binomial censoring, and random dependent censoring (RDC), which incorporates the dependence between the the daily-read and true peak discharges. The performance of the methods is evaluated using a Monte Carlo study. The RDC method is found preferable to the CAG method because it provides better performance (in terms of root mean squared error and bias) and is theoretically sound. The BC method performs very poorly and is not recommended.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:flood risk frequency ENSO La Nin IPO PDO climate variability change
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Environmental Engineering
Research Field:Environmental Engineering Modelling
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Land and Water Management
Objective Field:Land and Water Management of environments not elsewhere classified
Author:Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks)
ID Code:86426
Year Published:2005
Web of Science® Times Cited:4
Deposited By:Engineering
Deposited On:2013-09-14
Last Modified:2014-02-21
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