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Calibration of conceptual hydrological models revisited: 2. Improving optimisation and analysis


Kavetski, D and Kuczera, G and Franks, SW, Calibration of conceptual hydrological models revisited: 2. Improving optimisation and analysis, Journal of Hydrology, 320, (1-2) pp. 187-201. ISSN 0022-1694 (2006) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2005 Elsevier Ltd

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.013


Conceptual hydrological modelling has under-utilised classical parameter analysis techniques (for both optimisation and uncertainty assessment) due to the prohibitively complicated nonsmooth geometry of typical parameter distributions. In the companion paper, a numerically robust model implementation framework was developed, based on stable time stepping schemes and careful threshold smoothing to eliminate the roughness of parameter surfaces. Here, this framework is exploited to enable parameter estimation using powerful and well-established techniques including: (i) Newton-type optimisation and (ii) principal-component-type (Hessian-based) uncertainty analysis. A case study using a representative rainfall-runoff-snow model illustrates the advantages of these previously unavailable methods, contrasting them with slower and less informative current approaches designed for nonsmooth functions. In addition to boosting the computational efficiency, the methods advocated in the paper yield more insight into improved model formulation and parameterisation (e.g., reducing model nonlinearity, detecting ill-conditioning and handling parameter multi-optimality). The impact of extreme model nonlinearity on model and parameter stability is also discussed, focusing on model identification aspects.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:hydrological modelling uncertainty rainfall BATEA model
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Environmental engineering
Research Field:Air pollution modelling and control
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Other environmental management
Objective Field:Other environmental management not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks)
ID Code:86424
Year Published:2006
Web of Science® Times Cited:52
Deposited By:Engineering
Deposited On:2013-09-14
Last Modified:2014-04-11
Downloads:1 View Download Statistics

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