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Multidecadal variability in coastal eastern Australian flood data
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 19:31 authored by Micevski, T, Franks, SW, Kuczera, GThis study examines the applicability of the assumption in flood frequency analysis that flood peaks are independent and identically distributed. It investigates the effect and extent of multidecadal variability for mainly coastal, eastern Australian flood data. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is a climate index which describes this long-term variability. The flood data were stratified by IPO value and flood frequency analyses performed. Analysis of the stratified flood distributions revealed that the IPO modulated the flood risk in New South Wales and southern Queensland, with flood quantiles being increased by a factor of approximately 1.7 during IPO negative periods, whereas little effect was detected for sites in north-east Queensland located approximately north of the Tropic of Capricorn. This IPO modulation of flood risk may be explained by multidecadal movements of regional convergence zones. Neglect of the IPO dependence on flood risk can lead to significant bias in long-run flood risk.
History
Publication title
Journal of HydrologyVolume
327Issue
1–2Pagination
219- 225ISSN
0022-1694Department/School
School of EngineeringPublisher
Elsevier Science BvPlace of publication
Po Box 211, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 1000 AeRights statement
Copyright 2005 Elsevier B.V.Repository Status
- Restricted