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Critical evaluation of parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: A case study using Bayesian total error analysis

Citation

Thyer, M and Renard, B and Kavetski, D and Kuczera, G and Franks, SW and Srikanthan, S, Critical evaluation of parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: A case study using Bayesian total error analysis, Water Resources Research, 45 Article W00B14. ISSN 1944-7973 (2009) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2009 American Geophysical Union

DOI: doi:10.1029/2008WR006825

Abstract

The lack of a robust framework for quantifying the parametric and predictive uncertainty of conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models remains a key challenge in hydrology. The Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology provides a comprehensive framework to hypothesize, infer, and evaluate probability models describing input, output, and model structural error. This paper assesses the ability of BATEA and standard calibration approaches (standard least squares (SLS) and weighted least squares (WLS)) to address two key requirements of uncertainty assessment: (1) reliable quantification of predictive uncertainty and (2) reliable estimation of parameter uncertainty. The case study presents a challenging calibration of the lumped GR4J model to a catchment with ephemeral responses and large rainfall gradients. Postcalibration diagnostics, including checks of predictive distributions using quantile-quantile analysis, suggest that while still far from perfect, BATEA satisfied its assumed probability models better than SLS and WLS. In addition, WLS/SLS parameter estimates were highly dependent on the selected rain gauge and calibration period. This will obscure potential relationships between CRR parameters and catchment attributes and prevent the development of meaningful regional relationships. Conversely, BATEA provided consistent, albeit more uncertain, parameter estimates and thus overcomes one of the obstacles to parameter regionalization. However, significant departures from the calibration assumptions remained even in BATEA, e.g., systematic overestimation of predictive uncertainty, especially in validation. This is likely due to the inferred rainfall errors compensating for simplified treatment of model structural error.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:uncertainty hydrological modelling BATEA rainfall model
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Environmental Engineering
Research Field:Environmental Engineering Modelling
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Land and Water Management
Objective Field:Land and Water Management of environments not elsewhere classified
Author:Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks)
ID Code:86414
Year Published:2009
Web of Science® Times Cited:192
Deposited By:Engineering
Deposited On:2013-09-14
Last Modified:2013-10-30
Downloads:0

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