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Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in land surface-atmosphere flux predictions


Franks, SW and Beven, KJ, Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in land surface-atmosphere flux predictions, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 102, (D20) Article 97JD02011. ISSN 2169-8996 (1997) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 1997 American Geophysical Union

DOI: doi:10.1029/97JD02011


This studya ddressesth e assessmenot f uncertaintya ssociatedw ith predictions of land surface-atmospherfelu xesu singB ayesianM onte Carlo simulationw ithin the generalizedli kelihoodu ncertaintye stimation( GLUE) methodologyE. ven a simples oil vegetation-atmosphertrea nsfer( SVAT) schemei s shownt o lead to multiple acceptable parameterizationsw hen calibrationd ata are limited to timescaleso f typicali ntensivef ield campaignsT.h e GLUE methodologya ssignas likelihoodw eightt o eacha cceptables imulation. As more data becomea vailablet, hesel ikelihoodw eightsm ay be updatedb y usingB ayes equationA. pplicationo f the GLUE methodologyc an be shownt o reveald eficiencieisn model structure and the benefit of additional calibration data. The method is demonstrated with data sets taken from FIFE sites in Kansas, and ABRACOS data from the Amazon. Estimates of uncertaintya re propagatedf or each data set revealings ignificantp redictiveu ncertainty. The value of additional periods of data is then evaluated through comparing updated uncertaintye stimatesw ith previouse stimatesu singt he Shannone ntropym easure

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:uncertaintly GLUE climate change latent heat flux SVAT
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Environmental engineering
Research Field:Air pollution modelling and control
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Other environmental management
Objective Field:Other environmental management not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks)
ID Code:86411
Year Published:1997
Web of Science® Times Cited:101
Deposited By:Engineering
Deposited On:2013-09-14
Last Modified:2013-10-16

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