Thomson, RJ and Hill, NA and Leaper, R and Ellis, N and Pitcher, CR and Barrett, NS and Edgar, GJ, Congruence in demersal fish, macroinvertebrate, and macroalgal community turnover on shallow temperate reefs, Ecological Applications, 24, (2) pp. 287-299. ISSN 1051-0761 (2014) [Refereed Article]
Copyright 2014 the Ecological Society of America
To support coastal planning through improved understanding of patterns of biotic and abiotic surrogacy at broad scales, we used Gradient Forest Modelling (GFM) to analyse and predict spatial patterns of compositional turnover of demersal fishes, macro invertebrates and macroalgae on shallow temperate Australian reefs. Predictive models were first developed using environmental surrogates with estimates of prediction uncertainty, and then the efficacy of the three assemblages as bio-surrogates for each other was assessed.
Data from underwater visual surveys of subtidal rocky reefs were collected from the south-eastern coastline of continental Australia (including South Australia and Victoria) and northern coastline of Tasmania. These data were combined with 0.01°-resolution gridded environmental variables to develop statistical models of compositional turnover (beta diversity) using GFM. GFM extends the machine learning, ensemble tree-based method of Random Forests (RF), to allow the simultaneous modelling of multiple taxa. The models were used to generate predictions of compositional turnover for each of the three assemblages within unsurveyed areas across the 6600 km of coastline in the region of interest.
The most important predictor for all three assemblages was variability (measured as standard deviation from measures taken interannually) in sea surface temperature. Spatial predictions of compositional turnover within unsurveyed areas across the region of interest were remarkably congruent across the three taxa. However, the greatest uncertainty in these predictions varied in location between the different assemblages. Pairwise congruency comparisons of observed and predicted turnover between the three assemblages showed that invertebrate and macroalgal biodiversity were most similar, followed by fishes and macroalgae, and lastly fishes and invertebrate biodiversity, suggesting that of the three assemblages, macroalgae would make the best bio-surrogate for both invertebrate and fish compositional turnover.
|Item Type:||Refereed Article|
|Keywords:||Australia, biological surrogacy, coastal planning, marine biodiversity, prediction, gradient forest, random forest, species turnover|
|Research Division:||Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences|
|Research Group:||Fisheries Sciences|
|Research Field:||Aquatic Ecosystem Studies and Stock Assessment|
|Objective Group:||Land and Water Management|
|Objective Field:||Coastal and Estuarine Water Management|
|UTAS Author:||Thomson, RJ (Dr Russell Thomson)|
|UTAS Author:||Hill, NA (Dr Nicole Hill)|
|UTAS Author:||Leaper, R (Dr Rebecca Leaper)|
|UTAS Author:||Barrett, NS (Associate Professor Neville Barrett)|
|UTAS Author:||Edgar, GJ (Professor Graham Edgar)|
|Web of Science® Times Cited:||11|
|Deposited By:||Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration|
|Downloads:||386 View Download Statistics|
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