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Reliability assessment of ship powering performance extrapolations using Monte Carlo methods


Kamal, IM and Binns, JR and Bose, N and Thomas, GA, Reliability assessment of ship powering performance extrapolations using Monte Carlo methods, Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Marine Propulsors, 5-8 May 2013, Launceston, Tasmania, Australia, pp. 454-460. ISBN 9780646903347 (2013) [Refereed Conference Paper]


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Copyright 2013 smp chair committee (Kourosh Koushan and Sverre Steen)

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This paper describes the application of a practical method for uncertainty analysis, in which the uncertainties in all error sources are considered individually and simultaneously in the extrapolation of ship powering prediction. Such uncertainty has been investigated by utilising the JTTCl 978 performance prediction method and an application of Monte Carlo simulations. The error sources are: the torque, thrust, towing force, propeller revolution from the self-propulsion test; the resistance force and the model speed from the resistance test; and the torque and thrust coefficient from the open water test. A case study was conducted using available sea trials and towing tank experimental data of the RTV Bluefin, a research and training vessel owned and operated by the Australian Maritime College (AMC), see Table 1 for main particulars. The levels of uncertainty in ship powering were obtained by choosing a random sample from the error sources and repeating the calculation a large number of times. Then the distributions of the simulation results were used to determine the uncertainty in the total result.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Conference Paper
Keywords:Monte Carlo simulations, model experiments, self-propulsion test, ITTC 1978 extrapolation
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ship and platform structures (incl. maritime hydrodynamics)
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water transport
Objective Field:Domestic passenger water transport (e.g. ferries)
UTAS Author:Kamal, IM (Mr Iwan Mustaffa Kamal)
UTAS Author:Binns, JR (Professor Jonathan Binns)
UTAS Author:Bose, N (Professor Neil Bose)
UTAS Author:Thomas, GA (Professor Giles Thomas)
ID Code:85805
Year Published:2013
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2013-08-08
Last Modified:2014-08-08
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