eCite Digital Repository
Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach
Citation
Khakzad, N and Khan, FI and Amyotte, P, Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 104 pp. 36-44. ISSN 0951-8320 (2012) [Refereed Article]
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.ress.2012.04.003
Abstract
Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes' theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | Bayes' theorem; Bow-tie approach; Dynamic risk analysis; Physical reliability models; Accident probability; Accident scenarios; Bayes' theorem; Bow tie; Dynamic environments; Failure Probability; Occurrence probability; Physical parameters; Models |
Research Division: | Engineering |
Research Group: | Maritime engineering |
Research Field: | Ocean engineering |
Objective Division: | Energy |
Objective Group: | Renewable energy |
Objective Field: | Renewable energy not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Khan, FI (Professor Faisal Khan) |
ID Code: | 85055 |
Year Published: | 2012 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 215 |
Deposited By: | NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics |
Deposited On: | 2013-06-12 |
Last Modified: | 2017-10-27 |
Downloads: | 0 |
Repository Staff Only: item control page