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Placing the power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers - taking the next step
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 18:01 authored by Nelson, R, Howden, M, Hayman, PThis paper explores heuristic methods with potential to place the analytical power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers. The complexity of real options analysis has led to patchy or ephemeral adoption even by corporate managers familiar with the financial-market origins of valuation methods. Intuitively accessible methods for estimating the value of real options have begun to evolve, but their evaluation has mostly been limited to researcher-driven applications. In this paper we work closely with Bush Heritage Australia to evaluate the potential of real options analysis to support the intuitive judgement of conservation estate managers in covenanting land with uncertain future conservation value due to climate change. The results show that modified decision trees have potential to estimate the option value of covenanting individual properties while time and ongoing research resolves their future conservation value. Complementing this, Luehrman’s option space has potential to assist managers with limited budgets to increase the portfolio value of multiple properties with different conservation attributes.
History
Publication title
Journal of Environmental ManagementVolume
124Pagination
128-136ISSN
0301-4797Department/School
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA)Publisher
Academic Press Ltd Elsevier Science LtdPlace of publication
24-28 Oval Rd, London, England, Nw1 7DxRights statement
Copyright 2013 Elsevier Ltd.Repository Status
- Restricted