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A reconstruction of Madden–Julian Oscillation Variability from 1905 to 2008


Oliver, ECJ and Thompson, KR, A reconstruction of Madden-Julian Oscillation Variability from 1905 to 2008, Journal of Climate, 25 pp. 1996-2019. ISSN 0894-8755 (2012) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright 2012 American Meteorological Society

DOI: doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00154.1


The most widely accepted characterization of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the bivariate index developed by Wheeler and Hendon. This index relies in part on satellite-based observations of outgoing longwave radiation and thus is not defined for the presatellite era. TheMJOis known to have a strong signature in surface pressure, and daily measurements of this variable are available as far back as the late nineteenth century. This study undertakes a statistical reconstruction of the Wheeler andHendonMJOindex from 1905 to 2008 based on tropical surface pressures estimated recently by the twentieth-century reanalysis project. The temporal and spectral properties of the reconstructed index are first shown to be consistent with the Wheeler and Hendon index over the common period (1979–2008). The reconstructed index is then validated over the earlier period (1905–1978) by examining its relationship with cloud cover, surface wind, precipitation, and sea level. These relationships are shown to be consistent with corresponding results obtained from theWheeler and Hendon index over the shared period and stable over the earlier period. Finally, a simple damped harmonic oscillator model is used to gain new insights into the predictability of the MJO index and also demonstrate consistency between the reconstructed index and theWheeler andHendon index. These results give confidence in the validity of the historical reconstruction of the MJO index over the last century.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:madden-julian oscillation, historical reconstruction, twentieth century reanalysis
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical oceanography
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver)
ID Code:84682
Year Published:2012
Web of Science® Times Cited:44
Deposited By:IMAS Research and Education Centre
Deposited On:2013-05-27
Last Modified:2018-03-28
Downloads:1 View Download Statistics

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