A Bayesian model of pasture curing

Curing percentage (the percentage of dead material in the sward) is a necessary component of fire behaviour modelling and subsequent fire danger ratings in grasslands. Current methods of estimating curing have limitations. Curing is controlled by leaf turnover in grasses but individual leaf turnover rates of themselves do not give estimates of curing. Bayesian modelling provides the potential to incorporate leaf turnover rates representing the entire life cycle of each leaf into a standalone model of curing from which statistical summaries can be generated and used in field models. In this study, curing percentage was estimated over thermal time for four common C3 grasses, and tested against field data.