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Application of macroecological theory to predict effects of climate change on global fisheries potential


Cheung, WWL and Close, C and Lam, V and Watson, RA and Pauly, D, Application of macroecological theory to predict effects of climate change on global fisheries potential, Marine Ecology Progress Series, 365 pp. 187-197. ISSN 0171-8630 (2008) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2008 Inter-Research

DOI: doi:10.3354/meps07414


Global changes are shaping the ecology and biogeography of marine species and their fisheries. Macroecology theory, which deals with large scale relationships between ecology and biogeography, can be used to develop models to predict the effects of global changes on marine species that in turn affect their fisheries. First, based on theories linking trophic energetics and allometric scaling of metabolism, we developed a theoretical model that relates maximum catch potential from a species to its trophic level, geographic range, and mean primary production within the species' exploited range. Then, using this theoretical model and data from 1000 species of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates, we analyzed the empirical relationship between species' approximated maximum catch potential, their ecology, and biogeography variables. Additional variables are included in the empirical model to correct for biases resulting from the uncertainty inherent in the original catch data. The empirical model has high explanatory power and agrees with theoretical expectations. In the future, this empirical model can be combined with a bioclimate envelope model to predict the socio-economic impacts of climate change on global marine fisheries. Such potential application is illustrated here with an example pertaining to the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis (Sciaenidae) from the East China Sea. © Inter-Research 2008.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Catch; Climate change; Fisheries; Macroecology; allometry; bioclimatology; catch statistics; climate change; ecological modeling; empirical analysis; global change; macroecology; percid; primary production; Invertebrata; Larimichthys polyactis
Research Division:Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Research Group:Fisheries sciences
Research Field:Aquaculture and fisheries stock assessment
Objective Division:Animal Production and Animal Primary Products
Objective Group:Fisheries - wild caught
Objective Field:Wild caught fin fish (excl. tuna)
UTAS Author:Watson, RA (Professor Reginald Watson)
ID Code:83760
Year Published:2008
Web of Science® Times Cited:93
Deposited By:Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration
Deposited On:2013-03-21
Last Modified:2013-12-23

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