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Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change


Cheung, WWL and Lam, VWY and Sarmiento, JL and Kearney, K and Watson, RA and Zeller, D and Pauly, D, Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change, Global Change Biology, 16, (1) pp. 24-35. ISSN 1354-1013 (2010) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x


Previous projection of climate change impacts on global food supply focuses solely on production from terrestrial biomes, ignoring the large contribution of animal protein from marine capture fisheries. Here, we project changes in global catch potential for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. We show that climate change may lead to large-scale redistribution of global catch potential, with an average of 30-70% increase in high-latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics. Moreover, maximum catch potential declines considerably in the southward margins of semienclosed seas while it increases in poleward tips of continental shelf margins. Such changes are most apparent in the Pacific Ocean. Among the 20 most important fishing Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) regions in terms of their total landings, EEZ regions with the highest increase in catch potential by 2055 include Norway, Greenland, the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On the contrary, EEZ regions with the biggest loss in maximum catch potential include Indonesia, the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), Chile and China. Many highly impacted regions, particularly those in the tropics, are socioeconomically vulnerable to these changes. Thus, our results indicate the need to develop adaptation policy that could minimize climate change impacts through fisheries. The study also provides information that may be useful to evaluate fisheries management options under climate change. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Catch; Climate change; Fisheries; Global; Marine; Redistribution; catch statistics; climate change; climate effect; continental margin; continental shelf; fishery economics; fishery management; fishery policy; fishery production; Alaska; Arctic
Research Division:Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Research Group:Fisheries sciences
Research Field:Aquaculture and fisheries stock assessment
Objective Division:Animal Production and Animal Primary Products
Objective Group:Fisheries - wild caught
Objective Field:Wild caught fin fish (excl. tuna)
UTAS Author:Watson, RA (Professor Reginald Watson)
ID Code:83731
Year Published:2010
Web of Science® Times Cited:721
Deposited By:Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration
Deposited On:2013-03-21
Last Modified:2013-03-21

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