Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	climate modeling, ecological footprint, evaporation, global warming, hydrological cycle, rainfall, sea surface salinity, thermodynamics
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Oceanography
Research Field:	Physical Oceanography
Objective Division:	Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:	Expanding Knowledge
Objective Field:	Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences
Author:	Durack, PJ (Mr Paul Durack)
ID Code:	83681
Year Published:	2012
Web of Science® Times Cited:	316
Deposited By:	IMAS Research and Education Centre
Deposited On:	2013-03-20
Last Modified:	2013-05-06
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