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Mitigating uncertainty using alternative information sources and expert judgement in aquatic non-indigenous species risk assessment


Dahlstrom, A and Campbell, ML and Hewitt, CL, Mitigating uncertainty using alternative information sources and expert judgement in aquatic non-indigenous species risk assessment, Aquatic Invasions, 7, (4) pp. 567-575. ISSN 1798-6540 (2012) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright Statement

Copyright 2012 The Authors

DOI: doi:10.3391/ai.2012.7.4.013


Aquatic non-indigenous species (ANS) management employs risk assessment as a tool to prioritize prevention and control efforts, but timely and comprehensive risk estimates are difficult due to various sources of uncertainty, particularly knowledge gaps. Several fields use or endorse the use of precaution, as well as group Delphic processes, to mitigate this uncertainty. To test the application of these methods in ANS risk assessment, we surveyed the knowledge and attitudes held by ANS scientists and managers regarding uncertainty and involved these experts in a modified Delphic process to determine consequence for a suite of 10 ANS. We found that participants supported the application of precaution in risk assessments. We also found the Delphic process aided the risk assessment process by facilitating outcomes that are supported by experts and stakeholders involved, account for uncertainty, and are therefore useful for policy and management purposes. Finally, we provide several recommendations for mitigating uncertainty in consequence assessments. These outcomes and recommendations provide increased understanding of the presence and sources of uncertainty, and the potential use of precaution and Delphic processes to facilitate the completion of comprehensive biosecurity risk assessments, despite the challenges posed by existing knowledge gaps in ANS impact information. Key words: non-indigenous species; uncertainty; precaution; Delphic process; risk assessment

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:non-indigenous species, uncertainty, precaution, Delphic process, risk assessment
Research Division:Human Society
Research Group:Policy and administration
Research Field:Environment policy
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Coastal and estuarine systems and management
Objective Field:Assessment and management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems
UTAS Author:Dahlstrom, A (Ms Alisha Dahlstrom)
UTAS Author:Campbell, ML (Associate Professor Marnie Campbell)
UTAS Author:Hewitt, CL (Professor Chad Hewitt)
ID Code:83239
Year Published:2012
Web of Science® Times Cited:8
Deposited By:NC Marine Conservation and Resource Sustainability
Deposited On:2013-03-06
Last Modified:2014-10-09

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