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Extreme surface and near-bottom currents in the northwest Atlantic
Citation
Oliver, ECJ and Sheng, J and Thompson, KR and Urrego Blanco, JR, Extreme surface and near-bottom currents in the northwest Atlantic, Natural Hazards, 64, (2) pp. 1425-1446. ISSN 0921-030X (2012) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
DOI: doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0303-5
Abstract
This study presents a methodology for estimating extreme current speeds from
numerical model results using extremal analysis techniques. This method is used to estimate the
extreme near-surface and near-bottom current speeds of the northwest Atlantic Ocean with
50-year return periods from 17 years of model output.The non-tidal currents produced by a threedimensional
ocean circulation model for the 1988–2004 period were first used to estimate and
map the 17-year return period extreme current speeds at the surface and near the bottom. Extremal
analysis techniques (i.e., fitting the annualmaxima to the Type I probability distribution) are used
to estimate and map the 50-year extreme current speeds. Tidal currents are dominant in some
parts of the northwest Atlantic, and a Monte Carlo-based methodology is developed to take into
account the fact that large non-tidal extrema may occur at different tidal phases. The inclusion of
tidal currents in this way modifies the estimated 50-year extreme current speeds, and this is
illustrated along several representative transects and depth profiles. Seasonal variations are
examined by calculating the extreme current speeds for fall-winter and spring–summer. Finally,
the distribution of extreme currents is interpreted taking into account (1) variability about the
time-mean current speeds, (2) wind-driven Ekman currents, and (3) flow along isobaths.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | extreme current speeds, extremal analysis, northwest atlantic, ocean circulation model, monte carlo methods |
| Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
| Research Group: | Oceanography |
| Research Field: | Physical oceanography |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
| Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
| Objective Field: | Climate variability (excl. social impacts) |
| UTAS Author: | Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver) |
| ID Code: | 82914 |
| Year Published: | 2012 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 4 |
| Deposited By: | IMAS Research and Education Centre |
| Deposited On: | 2013-02-22 |
| Last Modified: | 2016-09-27 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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