Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo- Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Madden-Julian Oscillation, predictability, wind-driven circulation, shelf circulation
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Oceanography
Research Field:	Physical Oceanography
Objective Division:	Environment
Objective Group:	Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:	Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Author:	Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver)
ID Code:	82763
Year Published:	2012
Deposited By:	IMAS Research and Education Centre
Deposited On:	2013-02-17
Last Modified:	2013-05-08
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