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Ecosystem model of Tasmanian waters explores impacts of climate-change induced changes in primary productivity
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 14:45 authored by Reginald WatsonReginald Watson, Nowara, GB, Sean TraceySean Tracey, Elizabeth FultonElizabeth Fulton, Bulman, CM, Graham EdgarGraham Edgar, Neville BarrettNeville Barrett, Jeremy LyleJeremy Lyle, Stewart FrusherStewart Frusher, Colin BuxtonColin BuxtonAn Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model was developed that represents the marine shelf environment surrounding the island state of Tasmania (south of mainland Australia). Climate change scenarios representing a range of potential impacts (30% increase or decrease over a century) on marine primary productivity were investigated. Temperature changes and other impacts were not investigated. This analysis uncovered an asymmetric set of system responses. Modeled increases in primary productivity predict increases in the biomass of most groups, especially shallow filter-feeders (which includes oysters), fished macrozoobenthos which includes rock lobsters (Jasus edwardsii) and octopus. In contrast the group of unfished macrozoobenthos (sea stars, whelks) decreased their relative biomass as primary productivity increased. All modeled fisheries responded to varying primary production levels. The most responsive modeled fisheries were for flathead (Platycephalidae) and for those offshore. Of the groups of special conservation interest (marine mammals and seabirds) the most responsive was the dolphin group – though all responded.
History
Publication title
Ecological Modelling: International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Engineering and Systems EcologyVolume
264Pagination
115-129ISSN
0304-3800Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Elsevier Science BvPlace of publication
Po Box 211, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 1000 AeRights statement
Copyright 2012 Elsevier B.V.Repository Status
- Restricted