eCite Digital Repository

Ecosystem model of Tasmanian waters explores impacts of climate-change induced changes in primary productivity


Watson, RA and Nowara, GB and Tracey, SR and Fulton, EA and Bulman, CM and Edgar, GJ and Barrett, NS and Lyle, JM and Frusher, SD and Buxton, CD, Ecosystem model of Tasmanian waters explores impacts of climate-change induced changes in primary productivity, Ecological Modelling: International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Engineering and Systems Ecology, 264 pp. 115-129. ISSN 0304-3800 (2013) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2012 Elsevier B.V.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.008


An Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model was developed that represents the marine shelf environment surrounding the island state of Tasmania (south of mainland Australia). Climate change scenarios representing a range of potential impacts (30% increase or decrease over a century) on marine primary productivity were investigated. Temperature changes and other impacts were not investigated. This analysis uncovered an asymmetric set of system responses. Modeled increases in primary productivity predict increases in the biomass of most groups, especially shallow filter-feeders (which includes oysters), fished macrozoobenthos which includes rock lobsters (Jasus edwardsii) and octopus. In contrast the group of unfished macrozoobenthos (sea stars, whelks) decreased their relative biomass as primary productivity increased. All modeled fisheries responded to varying primary production levels. The most responsive modeled fisheries were for flathead (Platycephalidae) and for those offshore. Of the groups of special conservation interest (marine mammals and seabirds) the most responsive was the dolphin group – though all responded.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate-induced changes, marine ecosystem model, primary productivity
Research Division:Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Research Group:Fisheries sciences
Research Field:Fisheries management
Objective Division:Animal Production and Animal Primary Products
Objective Group:Fisheries - wild caught
Objective Field:Fisheries - wild caught not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Watson, RA (Professor Reginald Watson)
UTAS Author:Tracey, SR (Associate Professor Sean Tracey)
UTAS Author:Fulton, EA (Dr Elizabeth Fulton)
UTAS Author:Edgar, GJ (Professor Graham Edgar)
UTAS Author:Barrett, NS (Associate Professor Neville Barrett)
UTAS Author:Lyle, JM (Associate Professor Jeremy Lyle)
UTAS Author:Frusher, SD (Professor Stewart Frusher)
UTAS Author:Buxton, CD (Professor Colin Buxton)
ID Code:81210
Year Published:2013 (online first 2012)
Web of Science® Times Cited:18
Deposited By:Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration
Deposited On:2012-11-27
Last Modified:2018-02-16

Repository Staff Only: item control page