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Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions


Goosse, H and Braida, M and Crosta, X and Mairesse, A and Masson-Delmotte, V and Mathiot, P and Neukom, R and Oerter, H and Philippon, G and Renssen, H and Stenni, B and van Ommen, T and Verleyen, E, Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions, Quaternary Science Reviews: International Multidisciplinary Review and Research Journal, 55 pp. 75-90. ISSN 0277-3791 (2012) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.003


Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 10001850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Antarctica, model-data comparison, last millennium, data assimilation, reconstruction
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Physical geography and environmental geoscience
Research Field:Glaciology
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in the earth sciences
UTAS Author:van Ommen, T (Dr Tas van Ommen)
ID Code:80642
Year Published:2012
Web of Science® Times Cited:19
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2012-11-06
Last Modified:2017-10-30

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