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Investigating the price of the New Zealand wool clip using modelling approaches
Citation
Aryal, J and Kulasiri, D and Carnaby, GA and Samarsinghe, S, Investigating the price of the New Zealand wool clip using modelling approaches, In proceedings of the 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, July 13-17, Cairns, Australia, pp. 727-733. ISBN 978-0-9758400-7-8 (2009) [Refereed Conference Paper]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2009 The Author
Official URL: http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/C1/aryal.pdf
Abstract
The price of the New Zealand wool clip has steadily decreased over the years and the
incumbent practitioners are looking for ways to increase the price. The price of the wool is determined by the
marketing approaches that are adopted. An auction system is one of the wool marketing approaches and a
total of 45% of the New Zealand wool clip is traded via auction (WIN, 2007).This auction is the English
open out-cry public auction which has been running for the last 150 years in New Zealand. The key players
of the auction (buyers, brokers and growers) as well as the New Zealand government are trying to understand
the reasons behind the steady decrease in the price of the New Zealand wool clip. Further, the incumbent
practitioners are questioning the auction system and looking for alternative ways of wool marketing. In this
study, an attempt is made to model auction data. The data is available from the only auction centre in the
South Island of New Zealand in Christchurch. Analytical approaches are used in developing the models from
the data. Before fitting the data into the models, the database is thoroughly cleaned and a necessary and
sufficient set of the parameters is produced by developing the approximation equations. The probability
distributions of the parameters in the data base are observed. Best fitted distributions for all physical
parameters are observed in terms of three measures namely mean square error, the chi-square and
Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit hypothesis tests. The cleaned database is used in the models.
The models are developed to predict the price of the different types of wool. The price from the auction
centre and the predicted price are compared. The models based on linear regression analysis, multiple
regression analysis and principal component analysis are developed. The developed regression models are
tested for the goodness-of-fit against coefficient of determination, R2
, which describes the proportion of
variability in the data set accounted for by the model. The model from the principal component analysis is
used for the possible dimensionality reduction in the data set. The developed models and the physical
parameters of wool are discussed. The role of physical parameters that account for the price of wool in the
auction system is investigated.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Conference Paper |
---|---|
Research Division: | Human Society |
Research Group: | Human geography |
Research Field: | Economic geography |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Other environmental management |
Objective Field: | Other environmental management not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Aryal, J (Dr Jagannath Aryal) |
ID Code: | 80482 |
Year Published: | 2009 |
Deposited By: | Geography and Environmental Studies |
Deposited On: | 2012-11-01 |
Last Modified: | 2014-12-16 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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