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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example

Citation

Katsman, CA and Sterl, A and Beersma, JJ and van den Brink, HW and Church, JA and Hazeleger, W and Kopp, RE and Kroon, D and Kwadijk, J and Lammersen, R and Lowe, J and Oppenheimer, M and Plag, HP and Ridley, J and von Storch, H and Vaughan, DG and Vellinga, P and Vermeersen, LLA and van de Wal, RSW and Weisse, R, Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example, Climatic Change: An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to The Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change, 109, (3-4) pp. 617-645. ISSN 0165-0009 (2011) [Refereed Article]


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Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

DOI: doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

Abstract

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/highimpact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:sea-level rise, flood protection, Netherlands
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical Oceanography
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
Author:Church, JA (Dr John Church)
ID Code:76866
Year Published:2011
Web of Science® Times Cited:96
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2012-03-14
Last Modified:2012-07-10
Downloads:472 View Download Statistics

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