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A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise
Citation
Hunter, J, A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise, Climatic Change, 113, (2) pp. 239-252. ISSN 1573-1480 (2012) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
DOI: doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0332-1
Abstract
Projections of climate change are inherently uncertain, leading to considerable
debate over suitable allowances for future changes such as sea-level rise (an
‘allowance’ is, in this context, the amount by which something, such as the height
of coastal infrastructure, needs to be altered to cope with climate change). Words
such as ‘plausible’ and ‘high-end’ abound, with little objective or statistically valid
support. It is firstly shown that, in cases in which extreme events are modified by an
uncertain change in the average (e.g. flooding caused by a rise in mean sea level),
it is preferable to base future allowances on estimates of the expected frequency
of exceedances rather than on the probability of at least one exceedance. A simple
method of determining a future sea-level rise allowance is then derived, based on the
projected rise in mean sea level and its uncertainty, and on the variability of present
tides and storm surges (‘storm tides’). The method preserves the expected frequency
of flooding events under a given projection of sea-level rise. It is assumed that the
statistics of storm tides relative to mean sea level are unchanged. The method is
demonstrated using the GESLA (Global Extreme Sea-Level Analysis) data set of
roughly hourly sea levels, covering 198 sites over much of the globe. Two possible
projections of sea-level rise are assumed for the 21st century: one based on the Third
and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
and a larger one based on research since the Fourth Assessment Report.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | climate change, sea-level rise, tides, storm surges, IPCC |
| Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
| Research Group: | Oceanography |
| Research Field: | Physical Oceanography |
| Objective Division: | Expanding Knowledge |
| Objective Group: | Expanding Knowledge |
| Objective Field: | Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences |
| UTAS Author: | Hunter, J (Dr John Hunter) |
| ID Code: | 76862 |
| Year Published: | 2012 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 72 |
| Deposited By: | CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems |
| Deposited On: | 2012-03-14 |
| Last Modified: | 2017-11-21 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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