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Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

Citation

Church, JA and White, NJ and Aarup, T and Wilson, WS and Woodworth, PL and Domingues, CM and Hunter, JR and Lambeck, K, Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future, Sustainability Science, 3, (1) pp. 9-22. ISSN 1862-4065 (2008) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright Statement

Copyright 2008 Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer

DOI: doi:10.1007/s11625-008-0042-4

Abstract

The coastal zone has changed profoundly during the 20th century and, as a result, society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise and variability. This demands improved understanding to facilitate appropriate planning to minimise potential losses. With this in mind, the World Climate Research Programme organised a workshop (held in June 2006) to document current understanding and to identify research and observations required to reduce current uncertainties associated with sea-level rise and variability. While sea levels have varied by over 120 m during glacial/interglacial cycles, there has been little net rise over the past several millennia until the 19th century and early 20th century, when geological and tide-gauge data indicate an increase in the rate of sealevel rise. Recent satellite-altimeter data and tide-gauge data have indicated that sea levels are now rising at over 3 mm year-1. The major contributions to 20th and 21st century sealevel rise are thought to be a result of ocean thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Ice sheets are thought to have been a minor contributor to 20th century sealevel rise, but are potentially the largest contributor in the longer term. Sea levels are currently rising at the upper limit of the projections of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (TAR IPCC), and there is increasing concern of potentially large ice-sheet contributions during the 21st century and beyond, particularly if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. A suite of ongoing satellite and in situ observational activities need to be sustained and new activities supported. To the extent that we are able to sustain these observations, research programmes utilising the resulting data should be able to significantly improve our understanding and narrow projections of future sea-level rise and variability.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:sea level rise; climate change; global and regional sea level
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical Oceanography
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate and Climate Change not elsewhere classified
Author:Church, JA (Dr John Church)
Author:White, NJ (Mr White)
Author:Domingues, CM (Dr Catia Domingues)
Author:Hunter, JR (Dr John Hunter)
ID Code:76153
Year Published:2008
Web of Science® Times Cited:120
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2012-02-29
Last Modified:2013-04-03
Downloads:8 View Download Statistics

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