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The communication of uncertain scientific advice during natural hazard events
Citation
Doyle, EEH and Johnston, DM and McClure, J and Paton, D, The communication of uncertain scientific advice during natural hazard events, New Zealand Journal of Psychology, 40, (4) pp. 39-50. ISSN 0112-109X (2011) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2011 New Zealand Psychological Society
Official URL: http://www.psychology.org.nz/NZJP_TOC#NZJP2011
Abstract
During natural hazard crises such as earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions, a number of critical challenges arise in emergency management decision-making. A multidisciplinary approach bridging psychology and natural hazard sciences has the potential to enhance the quality of these decisions. Psychological research into the public understanding of different phrasings of probability has identified that the framing, directionality and probabilistic format can influence people’s understanding, affecting their action choices. We present results identifying that translations of verbal to numerical probability phrases differ between scientists and non-scientists, and that translation tables such as those used for the International Panel on Climate Change reports should be developed for natural hazards. In addition we present a preliminary result illustrating that individuals may 'shift' the likelihood of an event towards the end of a time window.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | communication, scientific advice, natural hazard events, earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, emergency management decision-making, phrasing of probability |
Research Division: | Psychology |
Research Group: | Applied and developmental psychology |
Research Field: | Industrial and organisational psychology (incl. human factors) |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Natural hazards |
Objective Field: | Natural hazards not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Paton, D (Professor Douglas Paton) |
ID Code: | 75922 |
Year Published: | 2011 |
Deposited By: | Psychology |
Deposited On: | 2012-02-21 |
Last Modified: | 2015-03-05 |
Downloads: | 5 View Download Statistics |
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