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The communication of uncertain scientific advice during natural hazard events


Doyle, EEH and Johnston, DM and McClure, J and Paton, D, The communication of uncertain scientific advice during natural hazard events, New Zealand Journal of Psychology, 40, (4) pp. 39-50. ISSN 0112-109X (2011) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright 2011 New Zealand Psychological Society

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During natural hazard crises such as earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions, a number of critical challenges arise in emergency management decision-making. A multidisciplinary approach bridging psychology and natural hazard sciences has the potential to enhance the quality of these decisions. Psychological research into the public understanding of different phrasings of probability has identified that the framing, directionality and probabilistic format can influence people’s understanding, affecting their action choices. We present results identifying that translations of verbal to numerical probability phrases differ between scientists and non-scientists, and that translation tables such as those used for the International Panel on Climate Change reports should be developed for natural hazards. In addition we present a preliminary result illustrating that individuals may 'shift' the likelihood of an event towards the end of a time window.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:communication, scientific advice, natural hazard events, earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, emergency management decision-making, phrasing of probability
Research Division:Psychology
Research Group:Applied and developmental psychology
Research Field:Industrial and organisational psychology (incl. human factors)
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Natural hazards
Objective Field:Natural hazards not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Paton, D (Professor Douglas Paton)
ID Code:75922
Year Published:2011
Deposited By:Psychology
Deposited On:2012-02-21
Last Modified:2015-03-05
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