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Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system
Citation
Melbourne-Thomas, J and Johnson, CR and Fung, T and Seymour, RM and Cherubin, LM and Arias-Gonzalez, JE and Fulton, EA, Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system, Ecological Applications, 21, (4) pp. 1380-1398. ISSN 1051-0761 (2011) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2011 Ecological Society of America
Abstract
The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal
communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing
need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems
under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral
reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef
systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often
across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of
ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for
decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be
parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model
components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale
dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We
validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model
realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings
in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to
produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the
model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In
particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in
modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more
vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our
approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local
to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef
systems.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | connectivity; coral reef dynamics; coral reef management; decision support tool; ecosystem model; Meso-American Reef system. |
Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
Research Group: | Ecology |
Research Field: | Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Terrestrial systems and management |
Objective Field: | Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems |
UTAS Author: | Melbourne-Thomas, J (Dr Jessica Melbourne-Thomas) |
UTAS Author: | Johnson, CR (Professor Craig Johnson) |
UTAS Author: | Fulton, EA (Dr Elizabeth Fulton) |
ID Code: | 73009 |
Year Published: | 2011 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 43 |
Deposited By: | IMAS Research and Education Centre |
Deposited On: | 2011-09-06 |
Last Modified: | 2018-02-16 |
Downloads: | 7 View Download Statistics |
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