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Regional-scale scenario analysis for the Meso-American Reef system: Modelling coral reef futures under multiple stressors
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 08:09 authored by Jessica Melbourne-ThomasJessica Melbourne-Thomas, Craig JohnsonCraig Johnson, Elizabeth FultonElizabeth FultonCoral reefs worldwide are under threat from a wide variety of stressors and disturbances, many of which act in a synergistic manner to affect reef health. The future of coral reef systems at local, regional and global scales is highly uncertain, which poses a challenge to decision makers in designing appropriate strategies for managing human activities that affect reef resilience. Scenario analysis using simulation models can inform decision making by exploring possible futures under alternative management frameworks. Here, we use a spatially explicit, regional-scale simulation model for coral reefs in the Meso-American Reef system to explore the effects of multiple stressors and disturbances on reef state. Two complementary approaches to scenario analysis help to characterize potential reef responses to the combined impacts of climate and land-use change in the Meso-American Reef region. Sedimentation and nutrification emerge as key factors in decreasing the resilience of reef systems to climate change effects. The average community composition of degraded reef systems exposed to high levels of stress and disturbance tends to be more predictable than community composition on reefs that are subject to lower levels of stress and disturbance because degraded reefs tend to a common composition. This observation applies at both subregional (104–105 m) and regional (106 m) scales and reflects a finite bound to the effects of degradation on coral reef communities.
History
Publication title
Ecological Modelling: International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Engineering and Systems EcologyVolume
222Issue
10Pagination
1756-1770ISSN
0304-3800Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Elsevier Science BvPlace of publication
Po Box 211, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 1000 AeRights statement
The definitive version is available at http://www.sciencedirect.comRepository Status
- Restricted