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Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 06:56 authored by Donald, A, Holger MeinkeHolger Meinke, Power, B, Maia, AHN, Wheeler, MC, White, N, Stone, RC, Ribbe, J
The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

History

Publication title

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

33

Issue

9

Pagination

L09704

ISSN

0094-8276

Department/School

Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA)

Publisher

Amer Geophysical Union

Place of publication

2000 Florida Ave Nw, Washington, USA, Dc, 20009

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Climate variability (excl. social impacts)

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