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Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall


Donald, A and Meinke, HB and Power, B and Maia, AHN and Wheeler, MC and White, N and Stone, RC and Ribbe, J, Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, (9) pp. L09704. ISSN 0094-8276 (2006) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1029/2005GL025155


The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Climate change science
Research Field:Climatology
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:Meinke, HB (Professor Holger Meinke)
ID Code:71501
Year Published:2006
Web of Science® Times Cited:146
Deposited By:Research Division
Deposited On:2011-07-20
Last Modified:2011-07-20

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