The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Climate change science
Research Field:	Climatology
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:	Meinke, HB (Professor Holger Meinke)
ID Code:	71501
Year Published:	2006
Web of Science® Times Cited:	146
Deposited By:	Research Division
Deposited On:	2011-07-20
Last Modified:	2011-07-20
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