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From rainfall to farm incomes-transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 06:56 authored by Kokic, P, Nelson, R, Holger MeinkeHolger Meinke, Potgieter, A, Carter, J
In this paper we report the development of a bioeconomic modelling system, AgFIRM, designed to help close a relevance gap between climate science and policy in Australia. We do this by making a simple econometric farm income model responsive to seasonal forecasts of crop and pasture growth for the coming season. The key quantitative innovation was the use of multiple and M-quantile regression to calibrate the farm income model, using simulated crop and pasture growth from 2 agroecological models. The results of model testing demonstrated a capability to reliably forecast the direction of movement in Australian farm incomes in July at the beginning of the financial year (July-June). The structure of the model, and the seasonal climate forecasting system used, meant that its predictive accuracy was greatest across Australia's cropping regions. In a second paper, Nelson et al. (2007, this issue), we have demonstrated how the bioeconomic modelling system developed here could be used to enhance the value of climate science to Australian drought policy.

History

Publication title

Australian Journal of Agricultural Research

Volume

58

Issue

10

Pagination

993-1003

ISSN

0004-9409

Department/School

Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA)

Publisher

C S I R O Publishing

Place of publication

150 Oxford St, Po Box 1139, Collingwood, Australia, Victoria, 3066

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Climate change adaptation measures (excl. ecosystem)

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