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From rainfall to farm incomes-transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system

Citation

Kokic, P and Nelson, R and Meinke, HB and Potgieter, A and Carter, J, From rainfall to farm incomes-transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system, Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 58, (10) pp. 993-1003. ISSN 0004-9409 (2007) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1071/AR06193

Abstract

In this paper we report the development of a bioeconomic modelling system, AgFIRM, designed to help close a relevance gap between climate science and policy in Australia. We do this by making a simple econometric farm income model responsive to seasonal forecasts of crop and pasture growth for the coming season. The key quantitative innovation was the use of multiple and M-quantile regression to calibrate the farm income model, using simulated crop and pasture growth from 2 agroecological models. The results of model testing demonstrated a capability to reliably forecast the direction of movement in Australian farm incomes in July at the beginning of the financial year (July-June). The structure of the model, and the seasonal climate forecasting system used, meant that its predictive accuracy was greatest across Australia's cropping regions. In a second paper, Nelson et al. (2007, this issue), we have demonstrated how the bioeconomic modelling system developed here could be used to enhance the value of climate science to Australian drought policy.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Economics
Research Group:Econometrics
Research Field:Economic Models and Forecasting
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate Change Adaptation Measures
Author:Meinke, HB (Professor Holger Meinke)
ID Code:71490
Year Published:2007
Web of Science® Times Cited:21
Deposited By:Research Division
Deposited On:2011-07-20
Last Modified:2011-07-20
Downloads:0

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