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Modelling Extreme Events in a Changing Climate using Regional Dynamically- Downscaled Climate Projections
conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-23, 05:27 authored by Christopher White, Sanabria, A, Stuart CorneyStuart Corney, Grose, MR, Holz, GK, Bennett, James, Cechet, R, Nathaniel BindoffNathaniel BindoffThe ability of regional dynamically-downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) to assess changes to future extreme climatic events was investigated by comparing hindcast model outputs with observations. Projections were generated on a 0.1 degree grid across Tasmania using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). Two future SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and multiple boundary conditions from GCMs were used for the period 1961-2100. A bias-adjustment procedure was employed to spatially correct extreme magnitudes. Events were fitted to a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) using an automated threshold selection procedure developed for gridded precipitation datasets. Estimates of precipitation average recurrence intervals (ARIs) were calculated using extreme value analysis and compared to gridded observations. Spatial patterns were found in gridded precipitation extremes that closely matched observations. Projections of future changes to precipitation extremes were found to vary spatially between models, correlating with projected changes to regional climate drivers. Results demonstrate that dynamical downscaling captures regional climate variability (particularly relevant for precipitation) and displays significant ability in modelling future changes to the intensity, magnitude and frequency of extreme events at the local scale for use in adaptation and emergency planning applications.
History
Publication title
International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Modelling for Environment’s SakeVolume
S.28.05Editors
David A. Swayne, Wanhong Yang, A. A. Voinov, A. Rizzoli, T. FilatovaPagination
EJDepartment/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)Place of publication
CanadaEvent title
International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)Event Venue
OttawaDate of Event (Start Date)
2010-07-05Date of Event (End Date)
2010-07-08Repository Status
- Restricted