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Improved regional climate modelling through dynamical downscaling


Corney, SP and Katzfey, J and McGregor, J and Grose, MR and Holz, GK and White, CJ and Bennett, James and Gaynor, SM and Bindoff, NL, Improved regional climate modelling through dynamical downscaling, IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 11: 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society , 27-29 January 2010, Canberra EJ (2010) [Refereed Conference Paper]

DOI: doi:10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012026


Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide the best estimates for assessing potential changes to our climate on a global scale out to the end of this century. Because coupled GCMs have a fairly coarse resolution they do not provide a detailed picture of climate (and climate change) at the local scale. Tasmania, due to its diverse geography and range of climate over a small area is a particularly difficult region for drawing conclusions regarding climate change when relying solely on GCMs. The foundation of the Climate Futures for Tasmania project is to take the output produced by multiple GCMs, using multiple climate change scenarios, and use this output as input into the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to downscale the GCM output. CCAM is a full atmospheric global general circulation model, formulated using a conformal-cubic grid that covers the globe but can be stretched to provide higher resolution in the area of interest (Tasmania). By modelling the atmosphere at a much finer scale than is possible using a coupled GCM we can more accurately capture the processes that drive Tasmania's weather/climate, and thus can more clearly answer the question of how Tasmania's climate will change in the future. We present results that show the improvements in capturing the local-scale climate and climate drivers that can be achieved through downscaling, when compared to a gridded observational data set. The underlying assumption of this work is that a better simulated current climatology will also produce a more credible climate change signal.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Conference Paper
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Climate change science
Research Field:Climate change processes
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate change models
UTAS Author:Corney, SP (Dr Stuart Corney)
UTAS Author:Grose, MR (Dr Michael Grose)
UTAS Author:Holz, GK (Dr Greg Holz)
UTAS Author:White, CJ (Dr Chris White)
UTAS Author:Bennett, James (Mr James Bennett)
UTAS Author:Gaynor, SM (Ms Suzie Gaynor)
UTAS Author:Bindoff, NL (Professor Nathan Bindoff)
ID Code:71340
Year Published:2010
Deposited By:Research Division
Deposited On:2011-07-14
Last Modified:2012-03-20

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