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Assessing rainfall trends and remote drivers in regional climate change projections: the demanding test case of Tasmania
conference contribution
posted on 2023-05-23, 05:27 authored by Grose, MR, Stuart CorneyStuart Corney, Christopher White, Holz, GK, Bennett, James, Nathaniel BindoffNathaniel BindoffUnderstanding and modelling Tasmanian rainfall variability and making future projections of Tasmanian rainfall are challenging tasks. Tasmania has spatially and temporally complex rainfall patterns. Rainfall variability is influenced by a complex suite of remote drivers and these influences vary by season. The Climate Futures for Tasmania high-resolution model simulations project small changes to annual rainfall averaged over Tasmania, but larger changes to the spatial patterns and seasonality of rainfall. A case study of changes to summer rainfall under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario is shown here. The projected summer decrease in rainfall in the western rainfall region is consistent with the southerly movement and intensification of the subtropical ridge as well as an enhancement of the high phase of the Southern Annular Mode. The increase along the east coastal strip is consistent with an increase in blocking in the Tasman Sea as well as an increase in sea surface temperature, relative humidity and convective rainfall. We propose that projections of rainfall for places like Tasmania are strengthened through dynamical downscaling and also the analysis of the rainfall mechanisms within the model at all length scales.
History
Publication title
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 11: 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic SocietyVolume
11Editors
Barbara A Burns, Clem Davis, Andrew E Kiss and John R TaylorPagination
EJDepartment/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd.Place of publication
UKEvent title
National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic SocietyEvent Venue
CanberraDate of Event (Start Date)
2010-01-27Date of Event (End Date)
2010-01-29Repository Status
- Restricted