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Assessing rainfall trends and remote drivers in regional climate change projections: the demanding test case of Tasmania

Citation

Grose, MR and Corney, SP and White, CJ and Holz, GK and Bennett, James and Bindoff, NL, Assessing rainfall trends and remote drivers in regional climate change projections: the demanding test case of Tasmania, IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 11: 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society , 27-29 January 2010, Canberra EJ (2010) [Refereed Conference Paper]

DOI: doi:10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012038

Abstract

Understanding and modelling Tasmanian rainfall variability and making future projections of Tasmanian rainfall are challenging tasks. Tasmania has spatially and temporally complex rainfall patterns. Rainfall variability is influenced by a complex suite of remote drivers and these influences vary by season. The Climate Futures for Tasmania high-resolution model simulations project small changes to annual rainfall averaged over Tasmania, but larger changes to the spatial patterns and seasonality of rainfall. A case study of changes to summer rainfall under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario is shown here. The projected summer decrease in rainfall in the western rainfall region is consistent with the southerly movement and intensification of the subtropical ridge as well as an enhancement of the high phase of the Southern Annular Mode. The increase along the east coastal strip is consistent with an increase in blocking in the Tasman Sea as well as an increase in sea surface temperature, relative humidity and convective rainfall. We propose that projections of rainfall for places like Tasmania are strengthened through dynamical downscaling and also the analysis of the rainfall mechanisms within the model at all length scales.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Conference Paper
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Atmospheric Sciences
Research Field:Climate Change Processes
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate Change Models
Author:Grose, MR (Dr Michael Grose)
Author:Corney, SP (Dr Stuart Corney)
Author:White, CJ (Dr Chris White)
Author:Holz, GK (Dr Greg Holz)
Author:Bennett, James (Mr James Bennett)
Author:Bindoff, NL (Professor Nathan Bindoff)
ID Code:71328
Year Published:2010
Deposited By:Research Division
Deposited On:2011-07-14
Last Modified:2012-03-20
Downloads:0

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