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Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century


Pereira, H and Leadley, P and Proenca, V and Alkemade, R and Scharlemann, J and Fernandez-Manjarres, J and Araujo, M and Balvanera, P and Biggs, R and Cheung, W and Chini, L and Cooper, HD and Gilman, EL and Guenette, S and Hurtt, G and Huntington, H and Mace, G and Oberdorff, T and Revenga, C and Rodrigues, P and Scholes, R and Sumaila, U and Walpole, W, Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century, Science, 330, (6010) pp. 1496-1501. ISSN 0036-8075 (2010) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1126/science.1196624


Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyse global and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinction abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projects. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Environmental management
Research Field:Conservation and biodiversity
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Other environmental management
Objective Field:Other environmental management not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Gilman, EL (Dr Eric Gilman)
ID Code:68767
Year Published:2010
Web of Science® Times Cited:1122
Deposited By:Geography and Environmental Studies
Deposited On:2011-03-21
Last Modified:2011-03-29

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