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Ocean climate change, phytoplankton community responses, and harmful algal blooms: a formidable predictive challenge
Citation
Hallegraeff, GM, Ocean climate change, phytoplankton community responses, and harmful algal blooms: a formidable predictive challenge, Journal of Phycology, 46, (2) pp. 220-235. ISSN 0022-3646 (2010) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
The definitive published version is available online at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/
Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/
DOI: doi:10.1111/j.1529-8817.2010.00815.x
Abstract
Prediction of the impact of global climate change
on marine HABs is fraught with difficulties. However,
we can learn important lessons from the fossil
record of dinoflagellate cysts; long-term monitoring
programs, such as the Continuous Plankton Recorder
surveys; and short-term phytoplankton community
responses to El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) episodes.
Increasing temperature, enhanced surface
stratification, alteration of ocean currents, intensification
or weakening of local nutrient upwelling,
stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated CO2,
reduced calcification through ocean acidification
(‘‘the other CO2 problem’’), and heavy precipitation
and storm events causing changes in land runoff
and micronutrient availability may all produce contradictory
species- or even strain-specific responses.
Complex factor interactions exist, and simulated
ecophysiological laboratory experiments rarely allow
for sufficient acclimation and rarely take into
account physiological plasticity and genetic strain
diversity. We can expect: (i) range expansion of
warm-water species at the expense of cold-water species,
which are driven poleward; (ii) speciesspecific
changes in the abundance and seasonal
window of growth of HAB taxa; (iii) earlier timing of
peak production of some phytoplankton; and (iv)
secondary effects for marine food webs, notably
when individual zooplankton and fish grazers are differentially
impacted (‘‘match-mismatch’’) by climate
change. Some species of harmful algae (e.g., toxic
dinoflagellates benefitting from land runoff and ⁄ or
water column stratification, tropical benthic dinoflagellates
responding to increased water temperatures
and coral reef disturbance) may become more successful,
while others may diminish in areas currently
impacted. Our limited understanding of marine ecosystem
responses to multifactorial physicochemical
climate drivers as well as our poor knowledge of the
potential of marine microalgae to adapt genetically
and phenotypically to the unprecedented pace of
current climate change are emphasized. The greatest
problems for human society will be caused by being
unprepared for significant range expansions or the
increase of algal biotoxin problems in currently
poorly monitored areas, thus calling for increased
vigilance in seafood-biotoxin and HAB monitoring
programs. Changes in phytoplankton communities
provide a sensitive early warning for climate-driven
perturbations to marine ecosystems.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | adaptation; algal blooms; climate change; continuous plankton recorder; ENSO; NAO; ocean acidification; range expansion |
Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
Research Group: | Plant biology |
Research Field: | Phycology (incl. marine grasses) |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Adaptation to climate change |
Objective Field: | Ecosystem adaptation to climate change |
UTAS Author: | Hallegraeff, GM (Professor Gustaaf Hallegraeff) |
ID Code: | 67829 |
Year Published: | 2010 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 552 |
Deposited By: | IMAS Research and Education Centre |
Deposited On: | 2011-03-08 |
Last Modified: | 2011-05-10 |
Downloads: | 91 View Download Statistics |
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