The effect of changed market conditions in China on Rock Lobster catch and price

This brief note considers the effect of the changed market conditions in China (CMCIC) on rock lobster catches in November and December 2010. The analysis is based on a simple ‘rule of thumb’ which was supported by the CFAC in late 2010. The unprecedented low catch rates complicate this analysis, as the TACC for 2010/11 was predicted to have been undercaught by an estimated 160t if Chinese market problems had not arisen.

Based on an assessment of current catch rates, November and December catches of 127 and 242t, respectively, were anticipated. In November, 125t were landed (well within the uncertainty of the estimate), in December, 214t were landed – a shortfall of 28 t. If January and February catches are reduced by the same proportion as those in December, it is expected that the TACC for 2010/11, would be undercaught by 249 t – 89 t of which are attributable to the CMCIC. Anecdotal evidence suggests that unless the situation in China is resolved, the effect on catches in January and February may be more severe than indicated here, due to reduced local demand post-Christmas and reduced overseas demand post-Chinese New Year.

In 2010, beach prices prior to December were at a record high, which in part has enabled the rock lobster fishery to remain profitable during the current periods of low catch rates. There is a yearly decline in beach price from November to December; recently this has been in the order of 10-20%. In 2010 the beach price fell 50% from $79 in November (the highest recorded beach price) to $40 in December (the third highest December beach price on record).