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Cardiovascular risk scores in the prediction of subclinical atherosclerosis in young adults: evidence from the cardiovascular risk in a young Finns study

Citation

Raiko, JRH and Magnussen, CG and Kivimaki, M and Taittonen, L and Laitinen, T and Kahonen, M and Hutri-Kahonen, N and Jula, A and Loo, BM and Thomson, RJ and Lehtimaki, T and Viikari, JSA and Raitakari, OT and Juonala, M, Cardiovascular risk scores in the prediction of subclinical atherosclerosis in young adults: evidence from the cardiovascular risk in a young Finns study , European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation, 17, (5) pp. 549-555. ISSN 1741-8267 (2010) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright Statement

Copyright © 2010 The European Society of Cardiology

Official URL: http://journals.lww.com/ejcpr/toc/2010/10000

DOI: doi:10.1097/HJR.0b013e3283386419

Abstract

Aim: To study the utility of risk scores in the prediction of subclinical atherosclerosis in young adults. Methods and results Participants were 2204 healthy Finnish adults aged 24–39 years in 2001 from a population-based follow-up study Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns. We examined the performance of the Framingham, Reynolds, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), PROCAM, and Finrisk cardiovascular risk scores to predict subclinical atherosclerosis, that is carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque, carotid artery distensibility (CDist), and brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) 6 years later. In a 6-year prediction of high IMT (highest decile or plaque), areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for baseline Finrisk (0.733), SCORE (0.726), PROCAM (0.712), and Reynolds (0.729) risk scores were similar as for Framingham risk score (0.728, P always Z0.15). All risk scores had a similar discrimination in predicting low CDist (lowest decile) (0.652, 0.642, 0.639, 0.658, 0.652 respectively, P always Z0.41). In the prediction of low FMD (lowest decile), Finrisk, PROCAM, Reynolds, and Framingham scores had similar AUCs (0.578, 0.594, 0.582, 0.568, P always Z0.08) and SCORE discriminated slightly better (AUC= 0.596, P <0.05). The prediction of subclinical outcomes was consistent when estimated from other statistical measures of discrimination, reclassification, and calibration. Conclusion Cardiovascular disease risk scores had equal value in predicting subclinical atherosclerosis measured by IMT and CDist in young adults. SCORE was more accurate in predicting low FMD than Framingham risk score.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:cardiovascular risk score, subclinical atherosclerosis, ultrasound
Research Division:Medical and Health Sciences
Research Group:Cardiorespiratory Medicine and Haematology
Research Field:Cardiology (incl. Cardiovascular Diseases)
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions)
Objective Field:Cardiovascular System and Diseases
Author:Magnussen, CG (Dr Costan Magnussen)
Author:Thomson, RJ (Dr Russell Thomson)
ID Code:65709
Year Published:2010
Web of Science® Times Cited:15
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2010-12-01
Last Modified:2011-05-02
Downloads:0

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