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Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels
Citation
Ainley, D and Russell, J and Jenouvrier, S and Woehler, E and Lyver, PO and Fraser, WR and Kooyman, GL, Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels, Ecological Monographs, 80, (1) pp. 49-66. ISSN 0012-9615 (2010) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2010 Ecological Society of America
Abstract
We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and
AdeŽlie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations,
the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earths average
tropospheric temperature reaches 28C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set
by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on
penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four
models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0,
MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model
ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 28C warming (20252052) and the projected changes to
sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds,
precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and
sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-
scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of
statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response
over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which
have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output
projects a marked narrowing of penguins zoogeographic range at the 28C point. Colonies
north of 708 S are projected to decrease or disappear: ;50% of Emperor colonies (40% of
breeding population) and ;75% of AdeŽlie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited
growth might occur south of 738 S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to
increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at
lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. AdeŽlie Penguins might colonize
new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves
expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the
Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. AdeŽlies would be
affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to
intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | AdeŽlie Penguin; Antarctica; climate change; climate modeling; Emperor Penguin; habitat |
Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
Research Group: | Evolutionary biology |
Research Field: | Evolutionary impacts of climate change |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Coastal and estuarine systems and management |
Objective Field: | Assessment and management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems |
UTAS Author: | Woehler, E (Dr Eric Woehler) |
ID Code: | 63738 |
Year Published: | 2010 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 122 |
Deposited By: | Zoology |
Deposited On: | 2010-05-26 |
Last Modified: | 2011-04-12 |
Downloads: | 2 View Download Statistics |
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