Background and Objective: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. Study Design and Setting: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. Results: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score ¡Ý7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (¡Ý7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. Conclusion: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Research Division:	Biomedical and Clinical Sciences
Research Group:	Clinical sciences
Research Field:	Rheumatology and arthritis
Objective Division:	Health
Objective Group:	Clinical health
Objective Field:	Clinical health not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:	Zochling, JM (Dr Jane Zochling)
ID Code:	62654
Year Published:	2005
Web of Science® Times Cited:	22
Deposited By:	Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:	2010-03-15
Last Modified:	2011-07-13
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