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Estimating sea-level extremes under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise
Citation
Hunter, JR, Estimating sea-level extremes under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise, Climatic Change, 99, (3-4) pp. 331-350. ISSN 0165-0009 (2010) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com
Official URL: http://www.springerlink.com
DOI: doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9671-6
Abstract
Estimation of expected extremes, using combinations of observations
and model simulations, is common practice. Many techniques assume that the
background statistics are stationary and that the resulting estimates may be used
satisfactorily for any time in the future. We are now however in a period of
climate change, during which both average values and statistical distributions may
change in time. The situation is further complicated by the considerable uncertainty
which accompanies the projections of such future change. Any useful technique
for the assessment of future risk should combine our knowledge of the present,
our best estimate of how the world will change, and the uncertainty in both. A
method of combining observations of present sea-level extremes with the (uncertain)
projections of sea-level rise during the 21st century is described, using Australian
data as an example. The technique makes the assumption that the change of flooding
extremes during the 21st century will be dominated by the rise in mean sea level
and that the effect of changes in the variability about the mean will be relatively
small. The results give engineers, planners and policymakers a way of estimating
the probability that a given sea level will be exceeded during any prescribed period
during the present century.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
---|---|
Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
Research Group: | Oceanography |
Research Field: | Physical oceanography |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Adaptation to climate change |
Objective Field: | Climate change adaptation measures (excl. ecosystem) |
UTAS Author: | Hunter, JR (Dr John Hunter) |
ID Code: | 62120 |
Year Published: | 2010 (online first 2009) |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 100 |
Deposited By: | CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems |
Deposited On: | 2010-03-10 |
Last Modified: | 2017-04-11 |
Downloads: | 7 View Download Statistics |
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