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Implementation of quantitative bushfire risk analysis in a GIS environment
Citation
Atkinson, D and Chladil, M and Janssen, V and Lucieer, A, Implementation of quantitative bushfire risk analysis in a GIS environment, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 19, (5) pp. 649-658. ISSN 1049-8001 (2010) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2010 The Authors
DOI: doi:10.1071/WF08185
Abstract
Bushfires pose a significant threat to lives and property. Fire management authorities aim to minimise this threat by employing risk management procedures. This paper proposes a process of implementing, in a Geographic Information System environment, contemporary integrated approaches to bushfire risk analysis that incorporate the dynamic effects of bushfires. The system is illustrated with a case study combining ignition, fire behaviour and fire propagation models with climate, fuel, terrain, historical ignition and asset data from Hobart, Tasmania, and its surroundings. Many of the implementation issues involved with dynamic risk modelling are resolved, such as increasing processing efficiency and quantifying probabilities using historical data. A raster-based, risk-specific bushfire simulation system is created, using a new, efficient approach to model fire spread and a spatiotemporal algorithm to
estimate spread probabilities. We define a method for modelling ignition probabilities using representative conditions in order to manage large fire weather datasets. Validation of the case study shows that the system can be used efficiently to produce a realistic output in order to assess the risk
posed by bushfire. The model has the potential to be used as a reliable near real-time tool for assisting fire management decision making.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | bushfire simulation, fire behaviour, fire probabilities, modelling, Tasmania, wildfire threat analysis |
| Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
| Research Group: | Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience |
| Research Field: | Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience not elsewhere classified |
| Objective Division: | Environment |
| Objective Group: | Natural Hazards |
| Objective Field: | Natural Hazards in Forest and Woodlands Environments |
| UTAS Author: | Atkinson, D (Mr Dale Atkinson) |
| UTAS Author: | Janssen, V (Dr Volker Janssen) |
| UTAS Author: | Lucieer, A (Associate Professor Arko Lucieer) |
| ID Code: | 60358 |
| Year Published: | 2010 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 23 |
| Deposited By: | Geography and Environmental Studies |
| Deposited On: | 2010-02-02 |
| Last Modified: | 2014-06-10 |
| Downloads: | 11 View Download Statistics |
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