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Problematic practice in integrated impact assessment: the role of consultants and predictive computer models in burying uncertainty

Citation

Duncan, R, Problematic practice in integrated impact assessment: the role of consultants and predictive computer models in burying uncertainty, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 26, (1) pp. 53-66. ISSN 1461-5517 (2008) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.3152/146155108X303931

Abstract

It is well known in impact assessment that predictive model outputs will be as credible as their inputs and that model assumptions will drive outputs. What is less well known is how the practice of integrated impact assessment with its pervasive use of predictive computer models and multiple teams of consultants can influence evidence relied upon in deliberations over the impacts and benefits of major projects. This paper draws on an integrated impact assessment of a major energy infrastructure project in Australia known as Basslink to examine the epistemic implications of current practice. It will be argued that what has become standard procedure can serve to diminish the disclosure of prediction uncertainty.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Australia; Basslink; predictive computer models; certainty trough, integrated impact assessment, prediction, uncertainty, simulations
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Environmental Science and Management
Research Field:Environmental Impact Assessment
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Land and Water Management
Objective Field:Land and Water Management of environments not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Duncan, R (Dr Ronlyn Duncan)
ID Code:52831
Year Published:2008
Deposited By:Geography and Environmental Studies
Deposited On:2008-09-30
Last Modified:2009-03-19
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