mcdo_holb_2004b.pdf (1.39 MB)
A Poisson regression model approach to predicting tropical cyclogenesis in the Australian/southwest Pacific Ocean region using the SOI and saturated equivalent potential temperature gradient as predictors
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-16, 21:58 authored by McDonnell, KA, Neil HolbrookNeil HolbrookThis paper explores the potential of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) in combination with the saturated equivalent potential temperature gradient (EPT) as predictors of tropical cyclogenesis in the Australian/southwest Pacific Ocean. This is undertaken using a series of Poisson regression models of tropical cyclogenesis developed on a 2°latitude × 5°longitude and monthly grid. Links between tropical cyclogenesis and the predictors are investigated, with the most significant models cross-validated, and the skill of their hindcasts evaluated. The September lead SOI-only Poisson regression model provided skillful predictions of the temporal variability of tropical cyclogenesis across the entire region, with a root-mean-square error 22% better than climatology. The combination SOI and EPT model adds spatial skill and further improves temporal skill. Temporal skill is best in the Eastern subregion (western tropical Pacific) (significant correlations with observations at ∼99% level), while spatial skill is best elsewhere. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.
History
Publication title
Geophysical Research LettersVolume
31Issue
20Pagination
L20110ISSN
0094-8276Department/School
School of Geography, Planning and Spatial SciencesPublisher
American Geophysical UnionPlace of publication
United StatesRepository Status
- Restricted