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A Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Database

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-16, 20:39 authored by James, MK, Mason, LB
A mathematical model capable of simulating tropical cyclone tracks and central pressure histories over the Coral Sea, Australia, is described. The modeling approach assumes that each cyclone is an independent realization of the same underlying stochastic process. Relatively simple autoregressive models are used for the time series of latitude, longitude, and central pressure. The model is used to generate a large database of synthetic storms whose statistical characteristics are shown to simulate those of the population of real storms. Each synthetic storm can be used, in conjunction with a separately developed wind field model, to drive numerical models for computing wave heights and water levels (including storm surges) throughout the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. In this way, the sample size available for estimating extreme wave heights and water levels is greatly increased.

History

Publication title

Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering

Volume

131

Issue

4

Pagination

181-192

ISSN

0733-950X

Department/School

Australian Maritime College

Publisher

American Society of Civil Engineers

Place of publication

United States

Rights statement

Copyright 2005 ASCE

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Oceanic processes (excl. in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean)

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