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Risk is defined as "the chance of something happening that will impact on objectives" and measured in terms of consequences and likelihood. Applying this to bushfires, the likelihood component is the probability of a fire start (ignition) and spread (growth) and the consequence component is the impact of this fire starting and spreading. Shields & Tolhurst (2003) introduced a contemporary integrated approach to bushfire risk analysis, incorporating the dynamic effects of bushfires. This study develops a method of practically implementing this approach using currently available data. A worked example for the greater Hobart area is provided using ignition, fire behaviour and fire propagation models along with climate, fuel, terrain, historical ignition and asset data in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment. An ignition model was produced based on the historical occurrence of bushfires and human accessibility. This model was validated using independent data and was found to be a reasonable predictor of likely ignition sources. A risk specific bushfire simulation system was used to model the spread from ignition points to the urban interface for seven representative fire weather conditions. The final risk map was developed based on the linked probabilities of ignition, fire weather, spread, and urban penetration.

Item Type:	Conference Extract
Research Division:	Engineering
Research Group:	Geomatic engineering
Research Field:	Geospatial information systems and geospatial data modelling
Objective Division:	Environmental Management
Objective Group:	Other environmental management
Objective Field:	Other environmental management not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:	Atkinson, D (Mr Dale Atkinson)
UTAS Author:	Janssen, V (Dr Volker Janssen)
UTAS Author:	Lucieer, A (Professor Arko Lucieer)
ID Code:	48424
Year Published:	2007
Deposited By:	Geography and Environmental Studies
Deposited On:	2007-08-01
Last Modified:	2014-06-10
Downloads:	225 View Download Statistics