Will older workers change their retirement plans in line with government thinking? A review of recent literature on retirement intentions

This paper reviews recent retirement and retirement intention literature, with a view to assessing the acceptability of growing calls for later retirement and the conditions that may lead to a change in present plans. The review finds broad consensus with regard to the key factors that enter the retirement decision, significant among which are that financial considerations are not always prioritised, and that high rates of involuntary retirement may hold the key to understanding the recent trend to early retirement. Across a broad range of studies, many external factors serve to disrupt retirement intentions, which exceed actual retirement by 1-3 years and desired retirement age by double that margin. The findings indicate an elasticity of around 6 years wherein actual retirement could now move up or down depending on how well revisions to retirement - and labour market policy - accord with the needs and interests of older workers. They also illustrate a related need for more information on the retirement intentions and circumstances of women, whose increasing labour force participation at older ages appears to account for the recent small increase in Australia's average retirement age.