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Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature

Citation

Latif, M and Roeckner, E and Botzet, M and Esch, M and Haak, H and Hagemann, S and Jungclaus, J and Legutke, S and Marsland, SJ and Mikolajewicz, U and Mitchell, J, Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature, Journal of Climate, 17, (7) pp. 1605-1614. ISSN 0894-8755 (2004) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1605:RMAPMC>2.0.CO;2

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-of-the-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades. © 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical Oceanography
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Other Environment
Objective Field:Environment not elsewhere classified
Author:Marsland, SJ (Mr Simon Marsland)
ID Code:35561
Year Published:2004
Web of Science® Times Cited:187
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2005-08-19
Last Modified:2005-08-19
Downloads:0

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