1. Between the 1950s and 1990s the southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina underwent large decreases in population size throughout most of its breeding range in the Southern Ocean. While current population estimates suggest a recent recovery, some breeding populations have continued to decrease in recent years (Macquarie and Marion Islands), others have either remained stable (South Georgia, Kerguelen and Heard Island) or have increased (Peninsula Valdés, Argentina). 2. Intrinsi c hypotheses for patterns of regional decline include factors that are affected by density-dependent mechanisms: (i) paucity of males, (ii) population 'overshoot' and (iii) pandemic disease. Extrinsic hypotheses include (iv) predation, (v) competition with fisheries concerns, (vi) interspecific competition, (vii) environmental change and (viii) human disturbance. Of the eight hypotheses proposed and examined here, we conclude that three can be discounted (i, v, viii), three are unlikely, but may require more testing (ii, iii, iv) and two are plausible (vi, vii). 3. The interspecific competition hypot hesis is difficult to test because it requires the simultaneous monitoring of species that overlap directly with elephant seals, many of which have not been identified or little is known. However, an analysis of the relationship between log variance and log abundance (Taylor's power law) for populations of southern and northern elephant seals suggests that interspecific competition is not a significant factor in the decline of the southern elephant seal. 4. The hypothesis that decreases in southern elephant se al populations between the 1950s and 1990s were caused by the environmental change is the easiest to test and most plausible of the hypotheses. We propose a framework by which to test this hypothesis to determine how food availability affects individual survival. © 2005 Mammal Society.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Research Division:	Earth Sciences
Research Group:	Oceanography
Research Field:	Physical oceanography
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:	Hindell, MA (Professor Mark Hindell)
UTAS Author:	Bradshaw, CJA (Dr Corey Bradshaw)
ID Code:	34661
Year Published:	2005
Web of Science® Times Cited:	111
Deposited By:	Zoology
Deposited On:	2005-08-01
Last Modified:	2006-05-04
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