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Estimating survival and capture probability of fur seal pups using multistate mark-recatpure models


Bradshaw, CJA and Barker, RJ and Harcourt, RG and Davis, LS, Estimating survival and capture probability of fur seal pups using multistate mark-recatpure models, Journal of Mammalogy, 84, (1) pp. 65-80. ISSN 0022-2372 (2003) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1644/1545-1542(2003)084<0065:ESACPO>2.0.CO;2


We use a multistate mark-recapture model incorporating information on body mass, sex, time of capture, and natal colony to estimate the probabilities of survival, capture, and mass-state transition of New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri) pups from 3 sites (colonies) on Otago Peninsula, South Island, New Zealand. Apparent survival for a mean sampling interval of 47 days was high (≥0.850) after correcting for tag loss, and there was evidence that there were differences between sexes and among sites even after controlling for mass at capture. Survival did not differ among body-mass classes. Heavier pups had lower capture probabilities; however, differences in mass adequately explained any potential differences in capture probability due to sex. State-transition probabilities among mass classes also differed with time of capture, and between sexes and among sites. Although bias in estimates of survival probability is minimal when survival is high, heterogeneity in capture probabilities among different classes of individuals can bias estimates of pup growth rate and sex ratio. We recommend measuring mass of individuals and incorporating this and perhaps other pertinent information into multistate mark-recapture models when attempting to estimate survival and to determine the effect of capture probability on estimates of other life-history parameters.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Ecology
Research Field:Population ecology
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems
UTAS Author:Bradshaw, CJA (Dr Corey Bradshaw)
ID Code:26253
Year Published:2003
Web of Science® Times Cited:30
Deposited By:Zoology
Deposited On:2003-08-01
Last Modified:2004-12-06

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